Market Commentaries

OEM's

OEMs indicated increased confidence both at home and abroad during the quarter ending 30th June 1999, the confidence figure (the difference between the most optimistic and least optimistic forecasts) for home markets was 56% compared with 9% the previous quarter. For export markets the figures were 25% compared with 13% for the quarter ending 31st March 1999. This figure is better than the CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey, which showed a confidence figure of -9% over a similar period.

The figures for output were also up compared with the previous quarter with a reduction in companies working at 50 - 60% and a 13% increase in those working at the 91 - 100% level.

OEMs were slightly more optimistic for both home and export orders over the three-month period.

There was increasing confidence factors in respect of prices for home orders. The confidence factors for the next three months were -13% compared with -55% for the previous quarter. The equivalent figures for the next six months were 0% and -13%.

In export market there was increased confidence for prices in the next three months and more optimism in the next six months.

Contributors were also more optimistic about home sales in the next three and six months, but slightly less optimistic about export sales over the same periods.

The USA continues to be the single most important market with the EU representing the largest trading block with 49% of construction equipment exports.

OEMs were more confident about profits over the last three months and for the next three months.

For both liquidity and stock levels there was an improvement over the last three months and considerably more optimism for the next three months.

The amount of business conducted in Euros continues to be low with all the OEMs stating that their business in the new currency was less than 20%.

Component Suppliers

Trade prospects for component suppliers showed a reduction in the home market and a very large reduction in the export market, only 47% were more optimistic compared with 92% for the quarter ending 31 March.

Component suppliers recorded improvements in capacity and those working in the range 91-100% increased from 18% to 32%.

There was more optimism in the current home and export order books.

Component suppliers had considerably less optimism for average prices in the home market for the next six months. For export markets there was less optimism during the last six months and this was predicted to continue for the next six months.

There was increased optimism for home sales in the next three months with considerable increase in sales predicted in the next six months. For exports there was reducing confidence in the next three months with a prediction of a considerable increase in the next six months.

There was little change in the priority export countries with the USA still the most popular with 17% of the total. The EU was still the largest single market bloc accounting for 56% of all component supplier sales.

In the previous period the USA was the most popular country to develop as a priority market. For the period ending 30th June Sweden was the most popular with 14% and the USA in fifth place with 7%.

Profit levels in the past three months had improved but it was predicted that profits would decrease in the next three months.

Unlike OEMs the component suppliers showed a slight increase of the Euro as a trading currency.