Newsline - February 2000

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Market Commentaries

Market Trends Analysis – 30 September 1999

Is This Just a Blip ?

OEM’s

  • OEMs reported a reduced level of confidence for the quarter ending 30 September 1999. The confidence level (the difference between the most optimistic and least optimistic forecasts) was 22% for home markets and –11% for overseas markets. During the previous quarter the percentages were 56% and 25% respectively. These figures indicate a considerable and worrying change in OEMs perception of trade prospects.
  • Similarly output figures indicated a reduction in those companies working in the 91-100% range and an increase in those in the 81-90% range.
  • An increase in home order book was reported where the confidence factor increased by 11%. However, the confidence factor for overseas orders decreased by 9% to –22%.
  • Again for home prices there was a decreasing confidence factor – for the home market in the next three months the figure was –44% compared with –13% for the period ending 30 June. In the next six months the change was even greater from 0% in June to –33% in September.
  • A similar picture emerged for export market prices where the predictions for the the next three months was 29% worse. However, for the next six months the decrease was considered to be –6%.
  • In the future it was predicted that home sales would reduce for the next three and six months.
  • One piece of good news was the prediction that export sales would remain the same for the next three months and increase in the next six months.
  • The USA continues to be the biggest single country for exports with 24% of the total. The EU total contribution was slightly more than 50%.
  • Business conducted in Euros continued to be less than 20%.

Component Suppliers

  • Component suppliers indicated that trade prospects in the home market were improved with an increased confidence factor from 14% at the end of June to 31% on 30 September. In the export markets there was a slight decrease of 2% since June.
  • A reduction in orders both at home and overseas was reported.
  • Prices at home in the past six months indicated a reduction in confidence factor from –14% in June to -38% in September. The prediction for the next six months indicated an increased confidence factor of 20%. There was little change in prices overseas.
  • At home the confidence factors showed an improvement. For the next three months the increase was 14% and for the next six months 13%.
  • The situation was the reverse for export sales, for the next three months the confidence factor was 19% compared with 30% for the end of June. For the next six months the figure was 40% for the quarter ending 30 September compared with 52% for the quarter ending 30 June.
  • Like the OEMs the USA is the biggest export market with 24% the EU makes up approximately half of the remainder.
  • All component suppliers conduct less than 20% of their business in Euros.